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Why Bitcoin price and volume rising together is bad news for Ethereum, altseason
Bitcoin (BTC) is sucking up the volume from the entire cryptocurrency market as it continues to rally. This is causing the alternative cryptocurrency (altcoin) market to pullback, which has seen rising selling pressure and low buyer demand.
On Oct. 30, researchers at Santiment pinpointed the growing volume and dominance of Bitcoin, while Chainlink (LINK), Ether (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB) struggled. They wrote:
“The dominance involving #Bitcoin is continuing to display itself, particularly via trading volume. When comparing other top blockchains in the past day, note the decline in $ETH, $XRP, $LINK, and $BNB trading volume, while BTC’s levels stayed high.”
At least in the foreseeable future, traders believe the so-called “altseason” is not returning, especially as Bitcoin outperforms altcoins.
Historically, during bull markets, the cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin experience a rapid uptrend first. Then, altcoins followed, after BTC surged to a local peak or an all-time high.
Traders foresee a similar pattern playing out in the current price cycle, generally expecting altcoins to recover in 2021. But until BTC stabilizes and completes its rally, traders do not see a proper altcoin uptrend happening.
Since Sept. 13 lows, the Bitcoin dominance index has increased from 56% to 63.4%, recording a 7.4% increase within two months.
However, Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, said an altseason in the first quarter of 2021 is possible. He said:
“Dominance hit the red zone here. Still waiting until December for a top structure on this one. After that -> Quarter 1 altseason.”
The problem with altcoins is the current dynamic of the cryptocurrency market. When Bitcoin rises quickly, altcoins fall as capital cycles back into BTC. If BTC drops, then altcoins drop in tandem, putting altcoins in a precarious position.
A pseudonymous trader known as “DonAlt” said he has been short Ether for several days. He said that if ETH does not recover against Bitcoin, then a broader altcoin market pullback is a possibility. The trader noted:
“I’ve been short ETH for a couple days now. That said ETHBTC is approaching support. So there is a good chance it bounces here, if it doesn’t the entire altcoin market gaps down quite aggressively.”
Similarly, a trader recognized as “CryptoCapo” said that the technical structure of altcoins is not compelling in the near term. For traders, that makes Bitcoin more attractive, given that it has portrayed strong momentum throughout October. He emphasized:
“Let’s be honest: There are alts that look really bad, alts that look decent, and alts that look good. I don’t see any altcoin that looks really good right now. Choose wisely.”
As long as the price of Bitcoin continues to surge rapidly and Ether lags behind, an altseason is highly unlikely in the near term.
A strong sign of an altseason would be a consolidation of the ongoing Bitcoin rally followed by a breakout in the price of ETH.
Considering that BTC/USD broke out of the $13,000 resistance level merely a week ago, technically, an Ether and altcoin market uptrend could still potentially be several months out.
So far, the capital in the altcoin market still seems to be shifting towards Bitcoin, however. As Cointelegraph reported, decentralized exchanges, or DEXs, have continued to bleed volume in October. This indicates that the demand for DeFi tokens is slowing down likely due to Bitcoin’s curren momentum.
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Ripple/XRP News: Are We All Wrong? Ripple Rant #16
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Whales Accumulating XRP and Chainlink With Additional Crypto Assets Showing Potential, Says Analytics Firm Santiment
Data from crypto insights platform Santiment reveals that big money players are accumulating XRP and Chainlink (LINK) as two other altcoins show signs of strength.
In a new Twitter post, Santiment informs its 29,000 followers that whales have been buying up XRP since a month after the Covid-19 induced sell-off, causing the number of wallets with a balance of at least 100,000 XRP to increase significantly.
“Ripple’s whale count has spiked the past 6 months, with many in high-tier brackets of $XRP held. Since April, holders with:
Chainlink is also showing signs of improving fundamentals. According to Santiment, the top 100 non-exchange whale addresses have bought 34.2 million more LINK tokens in the last 12 months.
“If this isn’t the depiction of steady accumulation for Chainlink’s top 100 non-exchange whales in the past year, we don’t know what is. LINK’s offline increase in tokens at this rate truly shows confidence in the asset from those with most at stake.”
The crypto insights platform is also looking at Ren (REN), which is a protocol that enables the transfer of crypto assets between blockchains. Santiment says on-chain metrics indicate that Ren may have carved a local bottom.
“REN is running, and its turnaround from its $0.232 bottom was foreshadowed perfectly by a 5.2M on-chain transaction volume spike about 11 hours ago. The ETH-based crypto asset still has plenty of ground to make up for its -19.3% drop this past week.”
Santiment is also keeping a close eye on decentralized finance (DeFi) darling yearn.finance (YFI), which it says is beginning to show signals of bearish exhaustion.
“It appears that YFI is showing some signs of some bullish divergences, based on our research. An increase in whale activity is a good sign, and there appears to be an uptick in active addresses as well.”
Expect Bitcoin to Break $14,000 Once Altcoin Bleeding Ends: Analyst
It’s been a brutal past few days and weeks for altcoins despite Bitcoin’s strength. Top digital assets aside from BTC have plunged a handful of percent, even dozens of percent, against the U.S. dollar, even as Bitcoin hits new year-to-date highs.
Bitcoin analyst “Light,” who is celebrated by fund managers like Su Zhu of Three Arrows Capital, thinks that Bitcoin could soon break above $14,000 once the market sell-off ends:
“BTC is behaving in an incredibly strong fashion, up 0.9% l24hrs while alts hemorrhage and derisking continues in equities. Expect it to break $14,000 after the bloodletting runs its course.”
BTC is behaving in an incredibly strong fashion, up 0.9% l24hrs while alts hemorrhage and derisking continues in equities.
Expect it to break $14,000 after the bloodletting runs its course. pic.twitter.com/Zxeaq2FIcM
— light (@lightcrypto) October 30, 2020
$14,000 has long been a critical technical level for the leading cryptocurrency. It almost perfectly marked the highs of 2019’s rally, and also is in the vicinity of where Bitcoin closed its yearly candle at the end of 2017. Bitcoin moving above, then closing on a notable time frame on $14,000 will likely suggest the cryptocurrency will move dramatically higher.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal recently commented that $14,000 and $20,000 are the only two technical levels stopping new Bitcoin all-time highs.
Analysts assign much more importance to $14,000 than they do to $20,000 due to the amount of trading volume around the former price level.
Altcoins are expected to bounce once Bitcoin begins to consolidate or distribute and once global markets turn risk-on once again.
The fundamentals of certain altcoins are stronger than ever. Case in point: the total value locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) contracts recently hit a new all-time high above $12 billion, around five times higher than this metric was in June.
Analysts expect these fundamentals to eventually translate into price action in the DeFi market.