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Market Analysis Report (11 Nov 2020)
Bitcoin (BTC) is still showing strength with multiple attempts to break through $16,000 on Nov. 12. A new yearly high was established throughout the day with BTC price peaking at $16,150.
This yearly high is more than 300% higher than the yearly low in March at $3,800. This is impressive momentum, particularly as the life is being drained from altcoins.
Even Stan Druckenmiller acknowledged this week that he bought Bitcoin, expecting BTC to continue to outperform gold. This is yet another big-name institutional investor jumping on the “digital gold” bandwagon.
However, is a further continuation upwards warranted considering such euphoria? The Fear & Greed Index is at record highs, making a correction almost inevitable in the short term.
The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows an apparent resistance zone in the $16,000 region. It’s the first time in nearly three years that this level was reached. Back then, Bitcoin’s price was rejected at around $16,000.
Furthermore, the sixth green weekly candle is currently being printed, which is certainly a bullish sign.
However, many levels beneath the current price are untested on the weekly timeframe. A healthy way to build up a new cycle is backtesting of previous resistance levels as new areas of support.
This retest didn’t occur at the $12,000 area, for example. Hence, this is a level that traders should be watching since this may become a critical pivot area.
The daily timeframe shows a potential breakout above $15,600. Such a breakout is likely going to occur with a large volume, which would indicate major strength.
The current breakout lacks volume, however, setting up a potential bearish divergence and a top construction at this level.
In that regard, if Bitcoin’s price breaks south and loses the $15,600 level, a further correction seems inevitable.
If a further correction occurs, the levels to watch on the daily timeframe are $14,100, $13,100, and the zone around $11,600-12,000. The latter is also a potential support area on the weekly chart.
The Fear & Greed Index is still at extremely high levels, as the current level is 87 out of 100, the highest since June 2019, which marked the top of the previous bull cycle.
The Fear & Greed Index is a useful tool for gauging market sentiment.
When peak levels of 80+ are reached, a correction becomes more likely than further continuation upward. This euphoria is frequently short-lived as the market often moves in the opposite direction that the majority of traders expect.
While institutions jumping into Bitcoin or big-name investors stating that they own BTC is a very bullish signal for the market in general, this doesn’t mean that a correction can’t occur. In fact, such bull cycle corrections are often considered healthy for the Bitcoin market.
In the previous bull market cycle in 2017, BTC/USD saw multiple drops of 30% that resulted in retests of previous resistance levels, which then became springboards for the next leg up.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Author: Published 1 day ago on November 11, 2020
By Republished by Plato
Stock market news live updates: Stocks mostly lower as vaccine rally cools further
Stocks were mostly lower Thursday, with the Dow and S&P 500 dropping as optimism over a COVID-19 vaccine moderated further.
The Dow dropped 190 points, or 0.6%, as markets opened for trading, with nearly every component in the 30-stock index slipping. The S&P 500 ticked down by 0.5%.
The Nasdaq outperformed after rising 2% on Wednesday, as the index tried to make up some steep losses from earlier this week. Monday and Tuesday, investors fled from high-growth tech shares and piled into value and cyclical stocks on hopes that a vaccine would drive a faster economic recovery and lift businesses hardest hit earlier during the pandemic. That swift rotation, however, was likely overdone, according to some analysts.
“I would say the death of tech was excessively premature,” Brian Belski, BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist, told Yahoo Finance.
“Coming out of a recession and really kind of questioning what growth is going to look like over the next couple of quarters, and the higher likelihood of additional lockdowns on a state or even nation-wide level, really puts that increased confidence and bid in the technology stocks,” he added. “So again, the death of technology stocks and the stay-at-home trade I think is way, way, way too early.”
The U.S. has recently faced an increasingly dire pandemic situation, with the number of new cases reported daily topping 100,000 each day since Nov. 4, according to data compiled by the New York Times. The rising infection rate threatens to put the brakes on the economic recovery despite improving prospects for a vaccine, given that approval and distribution likely won’t come for another at least several more months. Pfizer (PFE) earlier this week reported early efficacy data showing their vaccine candidate was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19, and Moderna (MRNA) said it was closing in on releasing data from its own late-stage clinical trial in the near-term.
“The virus resurgence poses a key risk to the growth outlook,” Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius said in a note Wednesday. “State and local governments have imposed limited virus-related restrictions so far, compared to the summer when many of the hardest-hit states imposed restrictions such as closing bars, restricting indoor dining, and limiting gatherings, with a pause or reversal in reopening in the vast majority of the country. This may soon change, with an increasing number of states and regions recently imposing or considering new restrictions.”
“While the data also suggest that voluntary consumer behavior has responded less strongly to increased virus risks during the recent resurgence, this could change should perceived risks increase as case counts, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise,” Hatzius added.
Investors received their latest look at the state of the labor market Thursday morning in the Department of Labor’s weekly jobless claims report. Another 709,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, for a level still more than three times higher than the weekly average of new claims in 2019. And more than 21 million Americans remain on unemployment benefits of some form.
Here were the main moves in markets, as of 9:31 a.m. ET:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -11.89 points (-0.33%) to 3,560.77
Dow (^DJI): -156.33 (-0.53%) to 29,241.30
Nasdaq (^IXIC): +7.86 points (+0.05%) to 11,790.12
Crude (CL=F): +$0.25 (+0.6%) to $41.70 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$14.80 (+0.8%) to $1,876.40 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -7.1 bps to yield 0.918%
Consumer prices were unchanged in October over September following a 0.2% monthly rise during the previous period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday morning. Consensus economists had expected to see prices tick up 0.1%, according to Bloomberg data.
Prices for food away from home increased 0.3% over last month and 3.9% over last year, on an unadjusted basis, as consumers began to trickle back into reopened restaurants. Energy prices, however, fell another 0.5% for the fourth decline in seven months. Energy commodities prices remain 18% lower over last year, and fuel oil prices remain lower by more than more than 28%, as travel demand has stayed anchored by the pandemic.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the consumer price index was still flat over last month, and up just 1.6% over last year. A 1.2% drop in apparel prices offset some more modest rises elsewhere in the index during the month.
In the latest sign that the labor market is slowly healing, initial claims during the latest week checked in lower than expected, at 709,000 vs. 731,000 expected in a Bloomberg consensus forecast. Meanwhile, the prior week figure was revised slightly upward to 757,000. Markets are currently trading mixed after the data.
Here were the main moves in markets, as of 7:19 a.m. ET:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,550.5, down 17.25 points or 0.48%
Dow futures (YM=F): 29,082.00, down 229.00 points or 0.78%
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,885.00, down 1 point or 0.01%
Crude (CL=F): -$0.25 (+0.6%) to $41.20 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$8.00 (+0.43%) to $1,869.60 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -5 bps to yield 0.939%
Here were the main moves in markets, as of 6:05 p.m. ET Wednesday evening:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,571.75, up 3.75 points or 0.11%
Dow futures (YM=F): 29,339.00, up 28 points or 0.1%
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,891.00, up 5 points or 0.04%
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Author: Emily McCormick·ReporterNovember 12, 2020, 3:34 PM
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A poster seeking innovative suggestions tells readers “An Idea May Mean Wealth In Your Wallet”.
FX Market Analysis TODAY + Bitcoin TRAP?? All USD Forex Pairs Price Analysis November 12
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Institutional cash is pumping the DeFi markets support
Institutional cash is pumping the DeFi areas support
Institutional cash appears to be moving into the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, with Yearn Finance (YFI) among the top beneficiaries.
Relating to crypto market information aggregator IntoTheBlock, on-chain deals of $100,000 or maybe more have increased by 282percent within the last week — including nearly $134 million worth of task on Nov. 10 alone.
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Published at Thu, 12 Nov 2020 04:20:14 +0000
Author: by Alfred Camarro · 2020-11-12